Market Update - Feb 15, 2026

The Macro View: Searching for a Bottom

The non-stop beating for tech stocks continued through last week as the broader market slumped. We are seeing significant volatility, evidenced by a peaking $VIX. This typically signals one of two things: we are close to a final "capitulation flush," or market conditions are about to get far more severe.

The Bright Spot: Interestingly, $IWM (Small Caps) performed the best this week, successfully bouncing off its Friday lows. This divergence suggests some rotational interest despite the tech exodus.

Technical Deep Dive: $QQQ Signals

• Short-Term Pain: The daily charts for $QQQ look "ugly" right now, characterized by poor price action and broken support.
• Weekly Resilience: However, zooming out to the weekly chart reveals a less dire picture. We saw a slightly green candle on the Friday close, which may indicate that the market is attempting to stabilize and move higher.
• Sentiment Check: The Put/Call ratios reached a peak at Friday’s close. Historically, extreme bearish sentiment like this often acts as a contrarian indicator, suggesting a high probability of a relief rally.

The Verdict: We could see one final "flush" to trap late shorts before a broader rally begins.